In 2020, a sudden attack of the epidemic caused the collapse of numerous industries, but the two-wheeler market bucked the trend in this unprecedented "crisis" and sales continued to soar. At the same time the new national standard continued to push forward, but also let the two round electric car market completed a market clearing.
For the entire electric two-wheeled vehicle industry, 2020 is the end of the past 20 years of industry rough competition and "vassal sectorization", but also the industry into the deep water, into a new stage of development.
The electric two-wheeler industry is on the upswing
According to relevant industry data, the output of two-wheeled electric vehicles in China in 2020 has exceeded 45 million, and the production and sales of the whole industry are showing a trend of rapid growth. It is expected that starting from 2021, many places will face the end of the transition period, and will release the demand for the replacement of hundreds of millions of electric vehicles, thus bringing a large-scale explosion of the market.
Specifically, demand in both the B-end and C-end markets is growing rapidly. On the one hand, thanks to the rapid development of new economy and new forms of business such as takeout, bike-sharing, same-city logistics and instant retail, the demand for electric two-wheelers in b-end market has skyrocketed. Data show that in 2020, more than 6 million shared bikes were launched on meituan, Didi and other sharing economy platforms, not counting the new increment brought by the expansion of platform takeout business. In addition, the rapid expansion of other new economy businesses in the same city, such as errand running and instant retail, is also driving the rapid growth of electric two-wheelers.
On the other hand, the rise of new consumer groups such as Generation Z in the C-end market, the replacement demand brought by the urban motorcycle ban, and the surging demand of urban white-collar workers to meet the rigid needs of travel also drive the outbreak of the whole C-end market. Statistics show that more than 38 million two-wheeled electric vehicles were sold in 2020, and the trade boom is expected to bring huge new additions to the industry in the coming years. According to relevant industry data, China's annual production and sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles will remain above 40 million in the next decade, and it is expected to reach a peak of more than 60 million in 2021-2023.
At the same time, the intensification of the external epidemic has changed the way people in Europe and the Us travel, thus driving the rapid growth of the export of electric two-wheelers. Exports of electric two-wheelers reached 2.2 million units in 2020, up 28 percent year on year, data showed. Multiple industry dividend superposition, promote the whole industry to accelerate into the uptrend.
The head effect continues to increase
Accompanied by industry dividend, the state of the two - round electric vehicle industry policy tightening. On April 15, 2019, the new NATIONAL standard policy was formally introduced. The electric two-wheeled vehicle industry, which has been growing at a high speed for many years, faces the most significant industrial turning point in history, and then the whole industry ushered in a shuffle period.
First, after the implementation of the new NATIONAL standard, cumbersome 3C certification accelerated the market clearing of the electric vehicle industry. It is reported that 3C certification is a basic safety certification standard, 3C certification will cover the entire battery, motor, tires, chargers and other core parts, involving a wide range, the new NATIONAL standard policy requires electric vehicle brands only meet the 3C certification standards, can be factory, sales, import and participate in other business activities, etc. After the introduction of the new national standard, the whole industry to implement the "one car one certificate" system, has been on the brand of electric vehicles also need to carry out an annual annual inspection.
It is understood that in 2019, only 110 enterprises were qualified, and other small and medium-sized manufacturers that do not meet the provisions were basically eliminated after the policy was issued.
Secondly, the new NATIONAL standard under the head enterprises make full use of their own in production, research and development, sales and other aspects of many advantages, synchronous in the channel and terminal launched a fierce offensive, further squeeze the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises. At present, the domestic electric bicycle manufacturers have been more than a few years ago about 1000 scale, sharply reduced to the current only 170 (with electric bicycles, electric light motorcycles and electric motorcycle production qualifications), and the past entrenched in the township market, specializing in low-end products of the small workshop was forced to close, small and medium-sized manufacturers gradually cleared.
At the same time, Lvju ,Yadea, Aima and other top brands with strong marketing and channel advantages, become more than half of the user attention brands, Tailing, Luyuan and Xinri as traditional first-tier brands, also continue to high user attention. In 2020, the sales volume of Yadi will exceed 10 million, the annual sales volume of Emma will reach 8 million, and the sales volume of Tailing will reach 5 million. This means that the market share of the top three enterprises in the industry will exceed 40%, and the concentration of the electric two-wheeler market will further improve.
The reshuffle below new change tide
In addition, the new national standard policy on the "weight limit" requirements, so that lighter, higher energy density lithium battery, the electric vehicle industry has become the best power solution. The progress of Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and other technologies makes the industry more intelligent. In this context, the entire electric car industry is further accelerated reshuffle.
On the one hand, lithium electrification and intelligentization have improved the threshold of the entire electric vehicle industry, enabling the head manufacturers with r&d strength and scale effect to obtain further development space. For example, under the acceleration of lithium electrification, consumers have put forward higher requirements for the safety and stability of battery technology. Some leading manufacturers with research and development strength, relying on capital acquisition and strong self-research capacity, continue to launch new lithium new brands to develop the market, so as to gain a greater market share.
According to the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, the domestic top 20 companies accounted for 91.8 percent of the installed capacity in 2019, the top five companies accounted for 73.6 percent and the top two companies accounted for 61.3 percent. And January to May this year, the first 20 companies installed the amount of equipment accounted for as high as 96.5%, the first five companies installed the amount of equipment accounted for the proportion also jumped up to 80%, the first two companies accounted for as high as 70%, the market share of the head brand is obviously in the visible speed of acceleration.
Under the background of industry subsidies retreating, financing shrinking, and price reduction of lithium electric products, many small and medium-sized manufacturers are facing the pressure of cash flow fracture, and then have entered the countdown to bankruptcy.
, on the other hand, the rise of intelligent, snatched not only requires the electric two-wheelers company has strong research and development ability, also to have the deep big data, Internet of things, such as cloud service technology accumulation, it is a magic, for many small and medium-sized companies that would decide the intelligence, the chance of large manufacturers is doomed to be made.
Electric two-wheelers put an end to the wilderness
Whether it is the head concentration under the new NATIONAL standard policy, or the industry evolution of lithium electrification, intelligence, network connection and branding, it means that the whole industry has gradually entered a new game stage.
According to data released by market research institutions, electric bicycles equipped with lithium batteries account for more than 50% at present, and the lithium penetration rate of the overall category of electric bicycles (electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, electric light motorcycles) is close to 30%. With the increase of capital and more players with strong strength to join, lithium battery in cost-effective, safety and other problems are gradually being overcome. It can be predicted that the lithium electrochemical permeability of the whole industry will be further improved in the next few years.
At the same time, the head of the lithium electrochemical products are accelerating to occupy the market. For example, 2020 Emma, New Day's strategic new products have realized the whole system of lithium electrification, while the waist and tail enterprises based on the development cost and market risk, basically take the "stable" strategy, which makes the head enterprises in lithium electrification will spread faster, the market share will be greater improvement.
From the perspective of intelligence, the intellectualization of electric vehicle industry has swept the whole industry chain. From the intelligent factory, digital management system and intelligent stores, the comprehensive digitalization is being started in the whole industry. In the process of industry digitization, some industry leading enterprises are playing an important role in it. For example, luyuan, Emma and other brands have launched digital stores, and Yadi and other brands also focus on charging and converting electricity to store digitization to comprehensively promote their own system upgrade.
From this point of view, in the following development process of the electric vehicle industry, the head enterprises will still play the role of the main force. As the transitional period that the new NATIONAL standard sets ends, and digitization, the thorough development of intelligence, the head giant enterprise becomes the tide player in this big wave day by day, with its relative rough small manufacturer will be disillusioned inside the smoke river of history.